England find themselves in the semifinals of Euro 2024, but no one associated with the Three Lions would delude themselves into thinking there is anything other than an awful lot of work if they are to lift the Henri Delauney Trophy. That work will begin against the Netherlands in Dortmund, perhaps the biggest test Gareth Southgate's side have faced at a tournament where altogether more ordinary opposition have looked a slog for them.
It is faint praise indeed to say that the quarterfinal win over Switzerland on penalties was one of their best performances of the competition so far. They simply weren't actively unpleasant to watch, even if they still needed heroism from Bukayo Saka and nerves of steel from their spot kick takers to advance past robust but unremarkable opposition. How much of England's relative improvement was down to a somewhat overhyped switch of formation -- supposedly a switch to a back three, frequently England seemed like a back four team functioning with the common trope of a left back far more advanced than his right sided counterpart -- is an open question. The fact they won using it would suggest that this tinkered approach will stay for as long as they are in the tournament.
With that in mind, which positions and players could be under Southgate's microscope?
Golazo Starting XI Newsletter
Get your Soccer Fix from Around the Globe
Your ultimate guide to the Beautiful Game as our experts take you beyond the pitch and around the globe with news that matters.
By pressing sign up, I confirm that I have read and agree to the Terms of Use and acknowledge Paramount's Privacy Policy.
See All Newsletters
Please check the opt-in box to acknowledge that you would like to subscribe.
Thanks for signing up!
Keep an eye on your inbox.
Sorry!
There was an error processing your subscription.
Can anything deliver Manchester City's Foden?
On the matter of players who seem incapable of exiting the pitch, it is worth reflecting on the minutes played by Phil Foden. In England's games so far he has completed 90, 69, 89, 89 and 115 minutes of football. If you saw those numbers at the end of the season they would not be remotely surprising, one of the best players in last season's Premier League getting a leading role on the international stage. And yet ahead of his 40th cap on Wednesday night, England are yet to see a Foden performance anywhere near as good as the baseline he set with Manchester City this season.
One thing is certain. If Foden was as wasteful in prime positions for City as he has been for England, then Pep Guardiola would never allow him to remain on the pitch for so long.
Though it is worth noting that the best shot he has taken in this tournament was rubbed out for offside, Foden's nine efforts are worth a combined 0.31 expected goals (xG). In the caption above it says the shot points are sized by xG value. That genuinely isn't a typo. Three of the shots he has taken are literal one in a hundred efforts. At no stage in the last four years of Premier League and Champions League football has he had such a streak of taking bad shots.
Among 171 players at Euro 2024 who have taken three or more shots, Foden ranks 151st for xG per shot at 0.035, surrounded by the sort of defensive midfielders -- N'Golo Kante, Declan Rice, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg -- who are invariably going to hit and hope more than most. Meanwhile, a player who has averaged 0.23 expected assists (xA) per 90 for his club is at 0.08 at Euro 2024, slightly less than Marc Guehi. Something is not working, no matter the sparks of life that some saw in the first half against the Swiss.
Perhaps, the fault lies less with Foden himself than the surrounding pieces. Starting the tournament on the left, one would have imagined his best role was to drift inside but to do that effectively he would need a left back to overlap. Kieran Trippier has not been that. Moved infield against Switzerland, was the 24-year-old dropping into midfield more frequently than might have been expected because someone needed to offer passing progression that is not the forte of either Rice or Kobbie Mainoo?
Whatever the explanation, the end result is the same. England get a player who appears to have been handed a free role that he has never had for his club side. It would hardly be any wonder if, rather than gambolling across the field, he instead felt lost without a defined part to play. It is hard to see a side in flux knitting him into a defined system two games before their tournament ends.
Should Southgate want a more freewheeling talent in his frontline then options are available to him. Cole Palmer spent much of last season having the ball chucked to him in a Chelsea side lacking much in the way of attacking automatisms, tasked with beating his man and creating a shot for himself or his teammate. No wonder he has seemed so at ease when England are chasing the game, showing little semblance of structure or tactical underpinnings. So far Palmer hasn't delivered much in the way of end product, but he is a "maverick" performer who "makes stuff happen." There is nothing the English game loves more, except perhaps a crunching slide tackle. Averaging a take on every 11 minutes, might he be the man to add a little more oomph to the English cause?
Drained Harry Kane under pressure
Now let's move to something easierto make a confident prediction on. Barring a remarkable chain of events, Southgate is not going to drop his captain, one of the great through lines in the run to three semifinals in the last four major tournaments. For all his difficulties over the last few weeks, that is an understandable attitude to have. If the ball is dropping to any England player in the box, you would want it to be Harry Kane.
The issue is whether he is going to be in the box when required. A few segments of play on Saturday offered an exemplar of the trouble Kane is bringing for his team mates. Moments before Switzerland took the lead, the England captain was back on the edge of his box, working hard to shield the center backs behind him and secure possession. Kane did get the ball back, one of five touches in his defensive third (as many as he managed in the Swiss box) and before too long Kieran Trippier and Jude Bellingham had worked themselves into a prime position down the left flank. Unfortunately for them all their options were across the other side of the pitch. On the near side of the penalty area was a chasm, one which Kane would fill several seconds later as he made his way up the field.
Kane has never been the sort of sprinter who can transition from one end of the pitch to the other in the blink of an eye. He is not going to become that at 30 years of age, at the back end of an international tournament, coming off the back of a grueling season that ended early due to an ongoing back issue. Already it is being said that England's captain is his nation's Cristiano Ronaldo. If anything he could do with being more like Portugal's talisman-cum-lodestone. Just camp out near the other team's penalty area Harry. Let the ball find you.
Bafflingly, England have already proven that works for them. Their best performance of the tournament in the 1-0 win over Serbia, Kane staying high (especially in a first half where he had just two touches) to open space for Bellingham et al to craft in. When almost everyone else on this England team has a pathological insistence on coming to the ball, all Kane needs to do is hold his line and force the center backs to stay with him. That should not be beyond his abilities. If it is, Southgate needs to be altogether bolder in subbing him off.
Shaw and other concerns
There is a lot for England to worry about, so let's fly through a few other things briskly:
- Is Luke Shaw good to go from the outset? Even when introduced as a left footed center back, the Manchester United man showed an ability to stretch England's left flank out to the byline in a way that just doesn't make sense for the right footed Trippier. The challenge with gambling on Shaw's fitness is that a Dutch right flank in which Denzel Dumfries is so often free to bomb on from full back would ask questions of anyone, let alone a man who managed only a few hundred minutes last season as injuries hit hard.
- Shaw's presence would go some way to improving the deep progression of this side, whose getting out from their own third has proven agonisingly slow on occasion. It doesn't help that neither Rice nor Kobbie Mainoo are natural passers.
The latter has shown he can drive his team upfield with the ball at his feet, but such moments are eye-catching in part because they are so rare. So far, Mainoo is averaging just 13 percent of his passes forward and completing 2.13 carries of 10 yards plus per 90 minutes. That is not to say he looks ineffective, in particular his off ball work in the Swiss half has contributed meaningfully to thi. Whatever the system, England need to find a way to exploit both his and Rice's ability to apply pressure on teams attempting to break through the initial lines of the press. Any system with the brisk Kyle Walker and Shaw defending the flanks might help. - Away from the starting XI, Southgate can expect a sharp focus on how and when he makes his changes. That Ivan Toney, Shaw and Palmer have had meaningful impact off the bench isn't to absolve the England manager of the blame. It ought to be viewed as a challenge to him. How can he let situations drift for so long? Why is the initiative not seized earlier? Pick a scenario and England probably have a player on the bench who can make the right sort of impact.
Predicted England XI
Pickford; Walker, Stones, Guehi; Saka, Rice, Mainoo, Shaw; Foden, Bellingham; Kane
How to watch and odds
- Date:Wednesday, July 10 |Time:3 p.m. ET
- Location:BVB Stadion - Dortmund, Germany
- Watch:Fox or Fubo (try for free)
- Odds:Netherlands +200; Draw +190; England +170
